2018 new year resolution

  1. 学习 Python
  2. 每周抽出时间学习 deep learning 这本书
  3. 科研
    1. 离开之前完成 structure/noisy/optimal-tuning 这个工作
    2. 完成与lei合作的这个文章
    3. 思考以后的工作方向
  4. 找工作
  5. 有机会就多去Happy hour,多跟别人交流,练习英语和沟通
  6. to be continued…
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类似涉及到条件概率的问题可以用Eikosograms直观的理解。关于Eikosograms可以参考http://sas.uwaterloo.ca/~rwoldfor/papers/venn/eikosograms/paperpdf.pdf。我们学概率的时候常常使用文氏图,但是文氏图有时候会比较misleading,比如 disjoint 的事件和 independent 的事件文氏图并不容易区分。


在一个Eikosogram中,region表示一个事件,region的面积表示此事件发生的概率。比如上面的图中有三个随机变量:A,B和C。这三个随机变量均包含0,1两个outcome (扩展到多个outcome也直接)。条件概率自然的可以用面积比表示(方框的总面积为1)。比如定义

C= 0: shaded region;

C=1:un-shaded region。


Pr( C=1 | A = 0, B = 0 ) / Pr( C=0 | A = 0, B = 0 )  = Area of T1 / Area of (S1).

基于这个定义,independence有很直观的表示。比如 S1 和 S3 的“水位”相同则表示 B 和 C 在 A=0 的条件下独立。同样的,S2 和 S4 的“水位”相同表示B 和 C 在 A=1(即A-complement) 的条件下独立。那么B 和 C 是否是 unconditionally independent 呢?这个时候我们只需要把第1列和第2列合并,第3列和第4列合并,然后看等效的“水位”是否相同即可

Area(  S1 + S2 ) / Area( T1 + T2 )  ?= Area(  S3 + S4 ) / Area( T3 + T4 )




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Do not believe those who try to persuade you that composition is only a cold exercise of the intellect. The only music capable of moving and touching us is that which flows from the depths of a composer’s soul when he is stirred by inspiration. There is no doubt that even the greatest musical geniuses have sometimes worked without inspiration. This guest does not always respond to the first invitation. We must always work, and a self-respecting artist must not fold his hands on the pretext that he is not in the mood. If we wait for the mood, without endeavouring to meet it half-way, we easily become indolent and apathetic. We must be patient, and believe that inspiration will come to those who can master their disinclination.

A few days ago I told you I was working every day without any real inspiration. Had I given way to my disinclination, undoubtedly I should have drifted into a long period of idleness. But my patience and faith did not fail me, and to-day I felt that inexplicable glow of inspiration of which I told you; thanks to which I know beforehand that whatever I write to-day will have power to make an impression, and to touch the hearts of those who hear it. I hope you will not think I am indulging in self-laudation, if I tell you that I very seldom suffer from this disinclination to work. I believe the reason for this is that I am naturally patient. I have learnt to master myself, and I am glad I have not followed in the steps of some of my Russian colleagues, who have no self-confidence and are so impatient that at the least difficulty they are ready to throw up the sponge. This is why, in spite of great gifts, they accomplish so little, and that in an amateur way.

Inspiration and work ethic — they ride right next to each other…. Not every day you’re gonna wake up and the clouds are gonna part and rays from heaven are gonna come down and you’re gonna write a song from it. Sometimes, you just get in there and just force yourself to work, and maybe something good will come out.

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“怕什么真理无穷 进一寸有一寸的欢喜”

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